Welcome to the first edition of my NFL picks column. Every other NFL site has one, so it’s about time we have one on Pro Football Talk Line as well. I know it’s already week 10, so just bare with me. We’re going to jump right into this and have some fun.
The NFL season has been wild so far with some incredibly good teams, and some teams that are actually hard to watch. It’s made games nearly impossible to pick. For example, I thought the Panthers would beat, or come close to beating, the Steelers. Each team only had two losses and had been playing well. Instead, the Steelers absolutely demolished the Panthers. Because that makes sense.
So let’s throw caution to the wind and see where we land.
(Home teams in bold; Friday lines)
New York (J) (-7) over Buffalo
The Jets are bad right now. Really bad. But the Bills are actually hard to watch right now because of how horrendous they are. They’ve scored a grand total of 20 points in their last three games. Plus, Chris Ivory and Tremaine Edmunds are both doubtful for Sunday. Jets by a million.
Atlanta (-5.5) over Cleveland
I don’t like people sleeping on my Browns, but the Falcons are on a three-game winning streak. They’ve scored 30+ points in three of their last five games. The Browns have only done that once this season. I love Baker, but Matty Ice covers this easily.
New Orleans (-5.5) over Cincinnati
This was tougher to pick than you’d think. Yeah, the Saints did just beat the Rams, but the Bengals have some big wins themselves this season. If AJ Green was going to play, then I actually might have taken the Bengals.
Washington (+3) over Tampa Bay
The Redskins offense is a typical Alex Smith-run offense that scores few points and just controls the clock. They don’t put up as many points as the Buccaneers, but they also don’t have as many turnovers. Fitzpatrick will probably throw four picks and give the game to the Redskins.
New England (-7) over Tennessee
The Titans basically are the Patriots after signing half their players and choosing a former Patriot as a head coach. However, they haven’t played like it consistently. This should be easy, even if Gronk and Sony Michel don’t play.
Jacksonville (+3) over Indianapolis
The Jags are back baby. Yeah, I get that they’ve lost their last four games and four out of their last five. But they still have ridiculous talent on defense, and they have the BOAT on offense. They’re going to surprise the Colts.
Chicago (-6.5) over Detroit
Detroit has been playing like, well Detroit. Chicago has been playing unbelievably.
Kansas City (-16) over Arizona
This line is huge and I hate it. But the Chiefs have scored 30+ points in all but one game. Arizona still has yet to make it over 20 points in a game. The Chiefs might drop 50.
Los Angeles (C) (-9.5) over Oakland
John Gruden was paid $100 million for this.
Miami (+10) over Green Bay
Green Bay is good, but they’ve put up 30 points just once this season. I hate it, but I think Miami will cover.
Los Angeles (R) (-9) over Seattle
Do you really think Sean McVay is going to let his team lose after being beaten by the Saints last weekend?
Philadelphia (-6.5) over Dallas
I’m starting to wonder if Jason Garrett is going down the Marvin Lewis/Mike McCarthy path where you can be just barely successful as a coach and still keep your job.
Monday night – San Francisco (-3.5) over New York (G)
I’m riding the Nick Mullens train until it breaks down on the tracks. Maybe after he torches the Giants, New York will try to make an offer to get him and replace Eli.
Football is the best.