We are only a few games away from the end of the season. Only a few more chances to cash out on DFS! So let's look at who gives you the best shot to do that this week in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
I use the DraftKings salary cap as my basis for picks, which operates on a 50k salary but I know we have many FanDuel players as well. For reference, Fanduel operates on a 60k salary, so prices will appear higher on that platform.
QB- Andrew Luck vs. KC @ $6,200
The only reason Andrew Luck isn't the highest-priced QB on the slate this week is the existence of Pat Mahomes. But really he should be at the top of the salary cap at the QB position. This Chiefs defense ranks dead last in passing yards allowed per game. They also are last in total yards allowed per game. With the Chiefs high-powered offense, the Colts will have to keep pace. Luck will be called upon throw the ball quite a bit and he’s shown us he is fully healed and ready to dominate once again.
The Kansas City secondary is vulnerable, and the only shot they have is getting a pass rush on Luck. What has been the biggest surprise for the Indianapolis franchise is the reconstruction of their offensive line. They are a big reason for Andrew Luck's and the team's success this year. If they can control the pass rush of the Chiefs, we may be looking at an upset. Pay up for Luck, you won’t be sorry.
RB- Marlon Mack vs. KC @ $5,800
So we just talked about how bad Kansas City is on defense to the air, but they’re almost equally as bad on the ground. They are ranked 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Since returning from injury, Marlon Mack has been fantastic. Three of the last four games he has eclipsed over 22 fantasy points rushing for 139, 119, and 148-yard performances.
While I think Andrew Luck will have a big game passing, I think the Chiefs defense can also be attacked on the ground. Marlon Mack has that explosive big-play ability and the Chiefs are the kind of team that allows those type of plays. I’m in big favor of stacking a few Colts this weekend because I think they’ll be plenty yards and fantasy points to go around.
WR- Alshon Jeffrey vs. NO @ $5,800
If the Saints have one fatal flaw it’s their pass defense. They ranked 29th in the league passing yards allowed per game. With the
amazing... magician... savior Nick Foles at the helm, Alshon Jeffrey has seen success.
In each of the last five games, Jeffrey has scored double-digit fantasy points, including a 27-point performance a few weeks back. He’s a big physical receiver that could give the Saints secondary some problems. For the price tag and the boom capability, I’m rolling him out this week.
TE- Zach Ertz vs. NO @ $5,700
Probably the most consistent performer for the Eagles all year has been Zach Ertz.
He had a couple subpar games at the end of the year by his lofty standards, but this is the defense to rebound against. The team uses him primarily as a receiver and the Saints will have to decide whether to focus on stopping Ertz or Jeffrey. I have a feeling both will have good games, but one will explode. I’m stacking them against a bad defense here.
Flex- Dontrelle Inman vs. KC @ $4,800
Listen, when I said I wanted ALL of the Colts that I could against at KC defense I meant it. Inman has three straight weeks of scoring over 14 points. The caveat, which can be unsustainable, is each of those weeks included a touchdown. What can’t be overstated, however, is that he is the second wide receiver option on the Colts team. Yes, T.Y. Hilton will get a lot of looks; Ebron will get his looks too. But Inman has a great red zone and over-the-middle frame and seems to run a fairly complete route tree. Luck hasn’t been hesitant to fire the ball his way. I’m willing to take the bargain price tag and bet on the hot streak continuing this week.
DST- Chargers vs. NE @ $2,400
What’s the one thing that can beat Tom Brady? A strong pass rush. The Chargers and their young stud Joey Bosa will be coming after Brady. Will they be successful? I think so. The Patriots don’t seem invincible, they seem vulnerable. The Chargers have an opportunity to make a statement and I think the way they do it is come after Brady and hit him.
As a defense, they rank top 10 in passing yards allowed per game, rushing yards per game, and points allowed per game. They’ll be tested against a playoff veteran like Brady, but I think they’ll get a few sacks and force a turnover to put up a respectable outing.
Best of luck to everyone and here’s to hoping your squad shows out — and you cash out.