We are down to just four teams left. Each pick is crucial now because the pool of players is shallow. We have to make tough decisions and choose where we pay up very shrewdly. I won't do a flex spot pick in this article, but instead, I will give you a daily double in the running back slot that you can use to fill your flex if you like my theory. Let's go!
I use the DraftKings salary cap as my basis for picks, which operates on a 50k salary but I know we have many FanDuel players as well. For reference, Fanduel operates on a 60k salary, so prices will appear higher on that platform.
QB- Drew Brees vs. LAR @ $5,900
Last time Drew Brees matched up against the Rams defense he threw for 346 yards and four touchdowns. While I don’t expect that sort of explosion, I do expect him to have a good day against the Rams secondary. I fully expect Mahomes to perform well against the Patriots as he did in their previous meeting, but Brees is a better value.
Brees scored 34.4 fantasy points in his matchup against the Rams earlier this season. Mahomes fared only slightly worse, scoring 32 fantasy point against the Patriots. About $700 separates them in DFS this weekend. Normally that’s not a huge chunk of the salary cap, but this week when your options are limited, every dollar counts. I think you get more bang for your buck with Drew Brees against a shaky Rams secondary than Mahomes versus Belichick round two.
RB- Sony Michel $5,600 and James White $5,400 vs. KC @ $5,400
So I know I am straddling both sides of the fence here, but I think both of these backs have value. Honestly, what I’m doing is stacking both of these backs in my running back slots for this weekend slate. We saw Sony Michelle run wild and punch in three touchdowns last week. We also saw James White catch 15 passes and rack up 27.4 fantasy points of his own in addition to Michel’s 35.8 fantasy points.
No matter how the game flows in KC, White will be heavily involved, it seems. KC struggles against the run. The Seahawks showed us the formula to beating the Chiefs when they bullied their way to a win several weeks back. Don’t think Belichick didn’t take note of that. For those reasons, I am a big proponent of stacking these two backs. I just hope Belichick doesn't pull a fast one on us and make this a Rex Burkhead game.
WR- Robert Woods vs. NO @ $5,700
It would be easy to say Tyreek Hill or Michael Thomas here, but the reality is you can’t pay up for everyone in a salary cap format. May I suggest Robert Woods as a cap-friendly option? Jared Goff has been shaky as of late, so if I’m the Saints I stack the box to stop Todd Gurley. You figure Marshon Lattimore would cover the deep threat in Brandin Cooks. That leaves Woods with some space against a vulnerable Saints secondary.
While the New Orleans defense has been much better the past month, they still were a bottom-ranked defense during the season. Teams can rally, but the Achilles heel will always be there, even if a bandage has been covering it. I expect Woods to have a good game as the Rams try to keep pace with the Saints offense.
TE- Travis Kelce vs. NE @ $7,100
I usually don’t pay up for the top player at any position, but it’s hard not to for Travis Kelce this week. The options at tight end are very limited among the four remaining teams. The matchup is ripe for Kelce to have a monster game.
Kelce has scored double-digit fantasy points in EVERY game this season, except Week 1. Consistency. Check. In seven of those games, Kelce has eclipsed 20 fantasy points. Possibility to boom. Check. The lowest catch total during the season since Week 2 was 5 catches. Volume. Check. Add on the Patriots defense that allows teams to move the ball, and you got yourself a guy worth paying up for at TE this week.
DST- Saints vs. LAR @ $2,700
I'm going to get right to the point. The Saints defense is probably the ONLY defense on this slate that has a chance to boom. The Patriots and Chiefs, even in inclement weather, will be a shootout and the Rams secondary was a sieve last time they matched up against the Saints. This is one of the few weeks in the year you just pony up and pay the money for the best defense.
Best of luck to everyone and here’s to hoping your squad shows out — and you cash out.